Asteroid Collision

Reproduced from http://www.MySpace.com/GaddyBergmann

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Asteroid collision even more likely than suspected

Current mood: worried

Well, it now looks as if Apophis is even more likely to strike us than previously thought. In an article yesterday, science website Physorg.com reported that a 13-year-old schoolboy correctly amended NASA's calculations on the likelihood of Apophis striking the Earth:

http://www.physorg.com/news127499715.html

NASA had originally estimated the odds at 1 in 45,000, but the new estimate is a whopping 1 in 450. Those are pretty high odds.

The asteroid is expected to come close to the Earth, without touching it, on Friday, April 13, 2029 (how appropriate). Depending on the trajectory, it could then miss us completely, or swing around again exactly seven years later on Sunday, April 13, 2036 - this time for a direct hit. Wow, that's exactly 28 years from now. In that event, Apophis would slam into the Atlantic Ocean, creating huge tsunami waves that would devastate coastal areas all over the Atlantic basin.

Despite the near-doomsday scenario depicted in my series, The Feral World, Apophis is not as big as some other infamous asteroids in Earth's history. The one that probably killed the dinosaurs and left the giant Chicxulub crater in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico was a whole 6 miles long - about the size of Mt. Everest. In contrast, Apophis is "only" about 1/5th of a mile long, so it might not cause as much devastation as the one from 65 million years ago, but if it does hit us, it'll be sure to pack quite a punch.

So what to do? Well, by 2029 or 2036, space agencies may be able to nudge Apophis off course a bit with strategically placed nuclear explosions. That would be a big relief. However, in case they can't, it might be a good idea to stock up on canned foods...and to stay away from the beach. This thing would make Jaws look like a goldfish.

Gaddy Bergmann

http://www.GaddyBergmann.com